Understanding Vig/bookmaker Margin: Calculating The No
The astute bettor will notice right away that the probability on each side of an MLB game does not add up to 100%. This is because there is a built-in vig or edge for the bookmaker that helps them make their money. To get the true probability for each side of a game, you need to remove that edge.
Start by adding the two probabilities together. In our example, we had 43.5% + 60% = 103.5% 103.5%. From the 103.5%, the 3.5% is the estimated vig on this pair of odds . We can then take each percentage and divide it by the combined percentage to give us the true probability for each team.
+130 Odds: 43.5% / 103.5% = 42%-150 Odds: 60% / 103.5% = 58%
In this matchup, the line tells you that in a fair market the underdog has a 42% chance of winning and the favorite has a 58% of winning. This is relevant because as you start to make predictions, you will come up with your own probabilities for a matchup and compare them to the available odds to see whether or not your prediction has value based on these fair market odds.
What Is The Runline
The runline is baseball’s version of the point spread. When betting on the runline, the favorite is -1.5 runs on the spread, with the underdog at +1.5 runs. Betting on the favorite requires your team to win its game by two or more runs. Conversely, betting on the underdog at +1.5 means that your team can either win the game or lose by one run, and your ticket will still cash.
Mlb Run Line Betting Strategy
A lot of bettors overlook the difficulty of MLB Run Line Betting. Many bettors will get in the mindset that the team they think will win the game will probably do so by at least 2 runs, leading them to bet the run line over the money line because of the higher odds. Just about 30% of MLB games end up being one run games, which is a lot higher than most people would have expected, making it very tough to predict when a team will cover the 1.5 run spread on the run line.
Another thing that many casual bettors dont take into consideration when betting the MLB Run Line is the disadvantage that the home team has. When the home team is favored they will need to win by two or more runs in order for a wager on them on the run line to win. Because the bottom of the ninth inning is not played out when the home team is winning, it leads to a lot of one run ball games finishing in the middle of the ninth inning. The home team gets one less at bat to score the extra runs that could have won you a run line wager.
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Is The Run Line Always The Same For Mlb Games
At legal online sportsbooks, the standard MLB run line is 1.5. This is one of the aforementioned variances from the point spread for other sports. While a spread can range from low single digits into high double digits, the run line is typically always the same.
As a result, run line bettors have to be even more diligent than normal when picking their spots. For a lower-scoring sport like baseball, a differential of two runs is pretty significant, while one-run games arent out of the ordinary.
When viewing an upcoming slate of games, you should see a run line of 1.5 across the board. Top sportsbooks will also offer alternate run lines. Well cover what you need to know about them in a bit.
Using Major League Baseball Odds To Your Advantage
The great part about the ML is that when you bet on underdogs, you can decrease the percentage of games you need to pick correctly to show a profit. For example, if you wager on 100 games with an average line of , you would need to score on 58% of your bets just to turn a profit, betting $100 per game. You should be paid out $5,800, but lose $5,460 on these bets, giving you a total profit of $340.
Now, looking at a situation where you bet on mostly small underdogs, say an average line of over 100 bets, you would only need accuracy on about 47% of your picks to show a profit. You should receive $5,405 in this case while losing $5,300, a profit of $105. Say you can up your winning percentage to 50% at an average money line of . If you are able to do that, you should instead collect $5,750, while losing $5,000, a profit of $750.
Remember that pitching is still the ultimate factor in making your picks and predictions. But a club that recently won a low-scoring outing as a dog is dangerous and almost never a bad wager. Once a team has proven it can small-ball grind its way to upsets of more talented clubs, they carry more value than a squad that got lucky with 5 homers against the Yankees.
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Odds For Mlb Run Line Bets Explained
When sportsbooks release odds for spread bets, the general standard is for -110 to be used as a starting point on both sides. After bettors begin to weigh in, there may be some fluctuation in the numbers.
Generally, the shifts are pretty slight, such as one side rising to -115 with the other side dropping to -105. The run line is very different from a spread bet in that respect. There can be much larger gaps between the odds on both sides.
For example:
| Chicago Cubs | -1.5 |
In this case, the Cubs have emerged as the clear choice of the public on the run line. As such, sportsbooks have adjusted the number.
Its important to remember that the odds on the run line wont necessarily be the same at each operator. For example, DraftKings Sportsbook in Illinois could be offering -125 on a team, but FanDuel Sportsbook may be at -135 for the same choice.
When getting set to bet on the run line, its always a good idea to shop around. If you engage in some simple line shopping, you can spot discrepancies such as this at the different sportsbooks. While the differences may seem minor, they can add up.
What Is An Mlb Run Line
A run line is one of the standard and most popular offerings for MLB betting. Its generally among the featured listings for the individual games, right alongside the moneyline and totals.
Just like the moneyline, the run line tells you which side is favored to win the game. However, the run line adds a new wrinkle to the equation, as theres a margin of victory to account for regardless of which side you choose.
The standard MLB run line is set at 1.5 runs. Heres what a standard game listing will look like for this wager type upon initial release.
- Cleveland Indians -1.5
- Detroit Tigers +1.5
For our example, the Indians are the favorite, as indicated by the -1.5 runs. The +1.5 on the Tigers side makes them the underdog. When choosing which side to bet on, you have to factor the 1.5 runs into your thinking.
If you bet on Cleveland, that means you expect the Indians to win the game by two or more runs. When you wager on the Tigers, that means you anticipate theyll keep the margin to one run. Detroit could also cover the run line by pulling out the upset and winning the game outright.
Unlike sports like basketball and football, where each side of a spread opens at -110, the odds on a run line are much more variable. The number will rise or fall based on betting action, but you can always shop around for the best prices by checking out several online sportsbooks.
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What Other Sports Have Spreads Similar To The Run Line
When betting on hockey, you can bet the puck line. Its almost the same thing as run line betting. Baseball and hockey are similar in that they are lower-scoring sports with a lot of variances. Like baseball, hockey favorites to cover the puck line is usually a plus-money bet.
Soccer has similar spreads in their games. Soccer games have handicaps such as half a goal. There are other markets called Asian handicaps where your bets can be refunded if a team wins by only one goal but you win your bet if they win by multiple goals.
In more one-sided matchups, there are spreads in soccer. For example, if Spain is playing Saudi Arabia in the World Cup, the spread might be 2.5 goals as the Spanish National Team would be large favorites to win handily.
How To Profit From Mlb Baseball Run Line Betting
How to Profit From MLB Baseball Run Line Betting
At Sports Insights, our sports betting systems typically focus on the MLB money line, but customers often ask us about whether they can make money with baseball run line betting. For those who are unfamiliar, the run line is similar to the spread in sports like football or basketball. Instead of betting that a team will win the game straight up , you instead bet with a run line of 1.5. A favorite would be listed at -1.5, meaning that they would need to win by at least two runs to cover the spread. On the flip side, an underdog would be listed at +1.5 and would need to either win straight up or lose by one run for a bettor to cash in.
Many bettors like this strategy because it allows them to get plus money on the favored team. For example the Tampa Bay Rays are -145 favorites tonight against the Boston Red Sox however, a bettor could get a Tampa Bay run line at -1.5 at a number of books. That means if the Rays won by at least two runs, somebody with a $100 bet on the Tampa Bay Run Line would win $150. On the contrary, that same $100 bet on the Rays moneyline would have earned just $68.97.
Knowing that you can always find plus money on baseball Run Line favorites, we were curious as to whether we could find a profitable MLB Run Line system using our BetLabs software. Our goal was to use the following historically profitable MLB betting trends to create a winning system:
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Run Lines Against Elite Teams
This strategy is best when a division leader is playing against a team on a losing streak. The better team is obviously favored on both the moneyline and run line. While the losing team may be a massive underdog to win outright, they have a much better chance of losing by a single run. Target the run line odds when theyre boosted as a result of the perceived mismatch.
Unders For Winning Teams
Teams stringing together long winning streaks are usually doing so on the backs of their pitchers. As the winning streak continues, that teams moneyline and run line odds will decrease over time. Instead of simply betting the winning team to keep winning, bet the Under of their games, either as a standalone of by parlaying it with a moneyline or run line wager. Betting the Under on its own helps to hedge against the risk of an eventual loss.
Oddsmakers will also artificially inflate the total when two winning teams are playing head-to-head. The fans watching are looking for runs and the books take advantage of this fan desire. Bet the Under on outlier numbers.
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Read Teams Run Line Records
Because sportsbooks price run line favorites like underdogs and run line dogs like favorites, just looking into a teams record versus the run line doesnt tell the whole story. A team with a good record as a run line underdog may only be returning a handful of profits due to the high vig on those +1.5 spreads.
Instead, look at units won as a run line favorite or underdog before putting weight into any teams run line record. You can find run line units won on individual MLB team pages and our MLB Team Money stats page.
How Is It Different From Money Line Bet
A money line bet is a bet on the games outcome, regardless of the score. So in our example above, if you took the Yankees to win and they do so, you win. If they lose, you lose. The reverse is true of the Red Sox in this example.
A money line bet is different from a run line bet because the margin has no bearing on the outcome. The Yankees could win by 1, 2, or more runs, and if you side with them, you win. If you designated the Red Sox to win, they could win or lose by less than two, and you would win.
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Vig Or Juice: The Cost Of Placing A Bet
Betting the baseball run line odds can be confusing because the team set as the run line favorite often carries a higher risk. After all, it must win by two or more runs and therefore returns a higher payout than the underdog, which has lower risk due to that 1.5-run handicap.
In our previous example, Torontos run line is -1.5 and the price of that bet also known as juice or vig is +160. Due to Toronto having to not only win but win by two runs to cover the run line, its juice is paying out $1.60 for every $1 staked or $160 on a $100 bet.
Boston has a +1.5 run line, with the vig at -160. Due to Boston having that +1.5-run cushion, the juice is paying out $1.00 for every $1.60 staked or bet $160 to win $100.
Run line juice/vig can vary depending on the strength of the two teams and the implied probability for the game.
A strong team with a high percentage to win outright could have a run line of -1.5, but that bet could also come with a high cost, as weve seen big favorites with -1.5 run line priced at -200 or higher and +1.5 underdogs returning +180 or more.
Mlb Run Line Betting Faqs
In baseball betting, the run line is a 1.5-run spread set between two teams. The run line favorite must win by two or more runs to win the run line bet, while the underdog has to lose by less than two or win the game outright to win the run line bet.
Betting baseball run lines versus moneylines depends on how much the bettor is willing to risk or return from their bets. Often, bettors opt to risk the -1.5 run line favorite instead of betting a big moneyline favorite because the return is higher.
Yes, run line bets include extra innings in baseball.
A run line favorite is set at -1.5 while the underdog is +1.5. Both run lines will also display odds for the cost of those run line bets .
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Using Stats For Mlb Betting
There are enough statistics in baseball to support or disprove nearly any pick. Bettors need to be careful and avoid the trap of confirmation bias. Its dangerous to stop researching once youve found the support for your initial belief.
Baseball stat keepers and sites such as Fangraphs are better than any other in breaking down splits by the situation. Look deeper into the numbers for every underdog when searching for value. Has a team been hitting poorly of late? Well, those offensive numbers could bounce back if the team has hit left-handed pitchers well for the bulk of the season and theyre facing a shaky southpaw.
Is a team playing a road game in a venue with different dimensions than its home park? Does the teams power hitters pull the ball or favor the opposite field? Is a team having more success against fly-ball or groundball pitchers? Be on the lookout for parks where doubles can turn into home runs and boost the run totals.
When Are Run Line Bets Pushed
Run line bets are rarely pushed. The run line is usually set at 1.5 runs, which makes a push impossible.
Occasionally, oddsmakers will make the run line an even number or offer alternate lines with that option. Additionally, sometimes when live betting the run line will be an even number.
In this situation, if the final margin of victory lands exactly on the set run line, all wagers will be refunded and graded as no action.
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A Dramatic Difference In Odds
The dramatic difference in odds and payouts may be attractive to sports bettors who have studied recent matchups between the two clubs. Using the Odds Shark Team Reports and MLB Database, you should also take into account the stat splits and recent performances of pitchers using our Pitcher Logs and Pitcher Money Won/Lost analysis. With the major odds difference, you could see more profit if you place a runline bet instead of a moneyline bet on tonights game which is probably Yankees vs Red Sox. Cue the Jeopardy music.
How To Bet On The World Series
The World Series is the pinnacle of baseball in the U.S. each year and creates a massive handle for every operator in October. All of the options for wagering outlined above are available during the World Series, in addition to series pricing.
Throughout the regular season, there are also futures bets that can be made on the eventual pennant and World Series winners. All regulated sportsbooks offer some form of World Series betting market with unique prop bets introduced every year.
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